Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

[Cassia]

Tanks are a bit like battleships were in WW2. They are outranged. The soon-to-be, AI-driven, drone swarms may eventually become defeated by laser weapons in the future, but by then most tanks will also probably become drones.

[Hydra009]

Maybe. But as you say, laser weapons could counter drones and laser weapons may be housed in tanks. So tanks might be less vulnerable in the future.

And right now, they do have some utility. They just have to shoot and scoot FAST because there's always a reconnaissance drone watching and you only get so long between being spotted and an FPV drone crashing into the tank.

The Russians using them as breakthrough vehicles - just throwing a brick on the gas pedal and going headlong into Ukrainain positions - is a poor use of them and pretty much guarantees they'll get blown up. They fight like everything and everyone is expendable and the end result is that they get expended.

[Cassia]

Maybe. But as you say, laser weapons could counter drones and laser weapons may be housed in tanks. So tanks might be less vulnerable in the future.

And right now, they do have some utility. They just have to shoot and scoot FAST because there's always a reconnaissance drone watching and you only get so long between being spotted and an FPV drone crashing into the tank.

The Russians using them as breakthrough vehicles - just throwing a brick on the gas pedal and going headlong into Ukrainain positions - is a poor use of them and pretty much guarantees they'll get blown up. They fight like everything and everyone is expendable and the end result is that they get expended.

It will become air, land, and sea drones battlesphere, so tanks as they are today will become obsolete soon enough. I do wonder if Putin knew that was coming and decided to make his move sooner than later because tanks and guns are what they were all about. That would be a stretch, I don't think they are that smart. The US cancelled its new manned M10 tank program last summer in favor of drone development.

[theantithesis]

Tanks are a bit like battleships were in WW2. They are outranged.

The Japanese battleship Yamato needed spotter ships because its cannons could shoot around the curve of the Earth and they couldn't actually see what they were shooting at. It stayed in dock for most of the war until it was finally deployed and it was immediately sunk.

...

...

Then it was retrofitted into a space ship and sent to Iscandar to save the Earth.

[Hydra009]

I do wonder if Putin knew that was coming and decided to make his move sooner than later because tanks and guns are what they were all about. That would be a stretch, I don't think they are that smart.

It was immediately after Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity, which ousted pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych (the idea that he was pro-Russian is not a guess or speculation, he was a member of an officially pro-Russian political party called Party of Regions).

It's also possible, but a bit iffy imho that Russia's ongoing demographics crisis and the harsh economic impact of covid made invading Ukraine again a much more attractive prospect for Putin. On paper, he had more than enough forces to take Kyiv especially considering that Zelenskyy himself (and lots of other people) were in denial about an imminent Russian invasion in 2022. Experienced Russian troops (Chechen wars, Georgia, Syria) weren't getting any younger and controlling more prosperous lands, rich with natural resources and right on NATO's doorstep and giving a land bridge to Transnistria was very much on Putin's mind.

Both Ukraine and Russia had no idea drones would become so vital. But when the obvious utility presented itself, both sides embraced drones.

[Hydra009]

Crybully tactics: Russia opens exhibition on ‘Polish Russophobia’ at site of Katyn massacre

The Katyn massacre was a series of mass executions of Polish people by Soviet authorities. A genocide and crime against humanity.

The reversed portrayal of aggressor and victim - with the aggressor seeking sympathy without remorse and the victim either portrayed as deserving of harm or somehow causing it is a tactic used by nazis and similar to deflect or even reverse blame for their crimes.

[Hydra009]

Temu-14

Decoy? But Russia doesn't have any T-14s in Ukraine, so wouldn't it make more sense to disguise the decoy as something that's actually in-theater? And anyway, the decoy fails because Russian tanks in Ukraine are festooned (sidenote: that's a fun word to say. Festooned. Heh) with so many cope cages and wires and so much Mad Max stuff that it's basically impossible to figure out what's underneath anyway. So just do that with a T-34 chasis and that might actually work. No need to waste a perfectly good BMP chasis.

So this is yet another puzzling development from the Russians. Military strategy? Some sort of scam targeting the brass? Art project? Who knows!

[Hydra009]

Today, like most days, has been a good news, bad news type of situation:

Good news:

The Tuapse oil refinery in Russia has been on fire for three days now. In photos and videos, it looks like the flume of an erupting volcano, but it's an entirely manmade disaster. Lots of oil dollars for Putin literally going up in flames.

In more recent news, Ukraine hit the Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery. The Russians very helpfully captured footage of a drone scoring a direct hit. Important note: absolutely no air defense of any kind shooting at it. What air defense doing?

Ukraine also hit the Syran oil refinery. So update those oil refinery bingo cards.

Ukraine hits 3 ships in Crimea: the Yamal and Azov large landing ships (originally tasked with amphibious assault of Odessa, but in limbo after the sinking of the Moskva) and a third unspecified ship, believed to be Grachonok Project 21980 anti-sabotage boat (harbor defense, lol doing a bang-up job). Ukraine also managed to hit a communication system, a radar, and you guessed it - even more oil tanks at an oil depot in Crimea. Those are like bubble wrap for the Ukrainian military.

Ukraine also blew up yet another Russian TOS-1 thermobaric artillery. Caught fire and rockets flew off on their own. Always very satisfying.

Ukraine blew up a logistics base used by Russia's elite drone unit Rubikon, stymieing their operations

And last but not least, partisans burned up an electrical substation in Luhansk, hurting Russian logistics in that area

Bad news:

Russian attack on Odessa kills 16 Among those killed was a 12-year-old boy, so it's important that Ukraine continue to receive vital aid to protect civilians and allow Ukraine to protect themselves and fend off invaders, and by extension, defend Europe as a whole from outside aggression.

With that in mind, Vance says that he's proud for the role he played in the Trump Regime's halting of military aid to Ukraine - an action that resulted in an exacerbated civilian death toll in Ukraine. Blood is on his hands and he's happy about that. When Trump kicks the bucket, don't expect the US to quickly pursue better foreign policy.

In Kyiv, a gunman open fire at a grocery store, killing 6 before being killed himself by police.

Trump Regime renewed a waiver permitting countries to buy Russian oil for another month. The decision came two days after the Trump administration had said it had no plans to extend the waiver. Once again, very suspicious behavior.

Israel accepts Russian ship carrying stolen grain. Ukrainian officials alerted Israeli officials about it. No action taken. Russian ship allowed to dock, allowed to sell its illicit goods, and allowed to leave. Shameful.

Speaking to the Kyiv Post, the Ukrainian Embassy in Israel described the ship’s arrival as “a blatant violation of international law and its territorial sovereignty.”

And Israel had such a stellar reputation when it comes to international law before this. /sarcasm

[Hydra009]