Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

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Ukraine destroys two Russian Tu-142 naval aircraft and an Iskander missile system

The planes are meant in an anti-submarine role and in this conflict, presumably try to spot/destroy Ukrainian naval drones, including the submersible ones

The Iskander operational-tactical missile system is a Russian system capable of launching ballistic missiles up to 500 kilometers.

The weapon, which can only be reliably shot down by the advanced U.S.-built Patriot system, has played a key role in attacks against Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure,

That's how Ukraine saves on Patriot missiles. Don't need to shoot down a missile if the system that would launch that missile is on fire.

Ukraine strikes Volgograd oil refinery, which shut down due to damage to primary/secondary oil refining units

Ukraine also struck Saratov oil refinery

Russian brigade that committed war crimes in Bucha hit by Ukrainian drone strike

Details on Russian casualties are still under investigation, but Ukraine has thus far confirmed the losses of 31 personnel belonging to the 64th brigade. This includes nine soldiers killed, nine injured, and another 13 missing.

"Most likely, these figures are significantly underestimated," Brovdi said.

Shoulda been nicer.

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The Russians have reacted to Ukrainian middle-range strikes on logistics by driving only at night and with armed escorts. The escorts fire just ridiculous amounts of bullets in the general vicinity of the incoming Ukrainian drone while the logistics truck turns off its lights and hopes that the Ukrainian drone doesn't have thermal. It's unclear if any of this works, since there is still footage of Russian logistics burning at night.

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It must not be working very well, because Russia hit 1400 casualties yesterday. Gonna be really hard for Russia to go back on the offensive with skyhigh losses and broken logistics.

Ukraine struck the Lazarevo oil pumping station in Russia’s Kirov region

According to Russian telegram, Russia is planning on easing the fuel shortages by buying fuel from Belarus, which gets its fuel from Russia...at a discount. So basically, buying back your own gasoline, just at a much higher price. 300 IQ chess move right there. Even assuming it eases the fuel crisis, Russia would still be burning money - worsening its economic crisis to solve its fuel crisis. At a certain point, that house of cards is going to crumble.

Some pretty crazy stories from the front:

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I'm starting to understand the cause of some of these crazy stories.

There's a video of a fairly old soldier (60ish) and obviously unwell (minor cuts on his forehead, glazed look) Russian soldier being questioned by his commander, who is recording the whole interaction. The commander asks this old soldier if they're going on assault tomorrow. He says he had a stroke and he needs to go to the hospital and he says it in a weird matter-of-fact, unemotional way. The commander says he doesn't care and they're going on assault tomorrow and basically badgers this guy to agree and shut up, which he does. The commander then complains that half of his troops are like this.

I really hope that's actually true and half his troops are too infirm to fight. Makes this much easier for Ukraine. Though I dislike that these infirm troops will probably die on assault while the abusive commander lives on. I hope Ukraine finds some sort of way to capture the infirm while bringing the hammer down on the abusive commanders. Maybe some sort of program to incentivize giving away info about their commanders in exchange for capture/safety for the troops under his command.

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2min20sec: A Russian inexplicably decided to go swimming in the Black Sea near Tuapse, where famously there was a huge oil fire and oil spill. Huge ecological disaster. He comes out of the water covered in oil. What the actual F. I'm not a doctor, but I'm pretty sure bathing in an oil spill is not good for your health. That's some Darwin Award stuff right there.

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Both Kyiv and Dnipro were bombarded by Russia, killing at least 23

As terrible as it is, it won't change the outcome of the war. Putin is losing the war he started. Bombing Ukrainian cities won't change that.

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Russian telegram has a post from a woman who brought her kids with her to Crimea and is bitterly disappointed that there is no fuel. She very much has the attitude that she's entitled to fuel and seemingly doesn't understand the root cause of the fuel crisis. Her posts ends with this comedy gold: "What should we do with three children? Walk? Why doesn't anyone think for the tourists?"

She brought 3 kids to an active warzone, illegally entered someone else's land, and probably also illegally occupied someone else's property. And then she wonders why there are fuel shortages during a war. The cause of the shortage isn't rocket science. Well, I suppose, technically it is. And then she demands fuel like she is the war's sole priority. How might she escape an area ravaged by war? For starters, not traveling there on vacation like it's some fun thing. Secondly, there are many people who would have tips and tricks for such a scenario - people originally from Mariupol or Bucha or Bakhmut or Avdiivka. Yes, walking is indeed an option. Or running. Or hitchhiking. This is not the time to be picky about mode of transport.

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Russian Official Says Crimea Gas Crisis ‘Temporary’ as Ukrainian Drones Pound Infrastructure

“This [gas rationing for selected individuals like police and government officials, and a ban on sales to average citizens] is a temporary measure. In the course of today there will be deliveries of fuel, so that we can refill reserves of fuel at fueling stations, and open sales on Sunday,” Razvozhaev said.

“I emphasize: there is no reason to get in a car queue this morning and spend the day waiting. There will be free and open sales [of fuel] on Wednesday. I will inform you of the time later,” Razvozhaev said.

The Russian internet and independent news platforms on Tuesday reported little public faith in Razvozhaev’s reassurances, with about 80 percent of fueling stations across Crimea unable to sell standard grades of automobile fuel because reservoirs had run dry. The remainder are only offering fuel to ration coupon holders, or to motorists willing to wait 5 or more hours for a turn at a pump on the terms of a maximum 20 liters per fill-up.

Attack video released by Ukraine’s military and social media video uploaded by local residents on Tuesday documented primary and secondary explosions, as well as energetic Russian machine gun fire engaging but failing to stop incoming drones.

"energetic"

Tuesday video published by the independent Russian news group Exilenova+ showed a Port Kavkaz parking lot with more than 30 heavy fuel trucks parked and, according to a purported trucker voice over, waiting “three or four days” for a chance to ride the car ferry into Crimea.

A tempting target. If a Joe Schmoe like me knows about it, you can bet that Ukrainian Intelligence knows about it. They might be in for a bumpy ride in Crimea.

“What I am supposed to do? Walk home with three children?” a Yevpatoria vacationer identified as Nika Popova complained in a Crimean tourist Telegram group after she claimed she had been searching for gasoline for two days and found none. Some locals advised her the best way for a Russian motorist to have a beach vacation in Crimea, in the future, is to purchase five 20-liter fuel cans, fill them in Russia, and not depend on Crimean fuel stations.

Well, I suppose that answers her question. Pack extra fuel ahead of time.