Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

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Jeez, Ukraine has been busy! I can barely keep up with all these strikes.

Kuibyshev oil refinery has halted operations following Ukrainian drone strike

Ukraine strikes Afipsky Oil Refinery again The Russians say it was "drone debris" of course (world's deadliest drone debris) but it might be a Ukrainian missile attack.

Russian corvette Boykiy beyond repair according to satellite data

I'm not surprised. According to eyewitness footage, a large amount of its superstructure was on fire, likely damaging/destroying the majority of its equipment.

According to satellite data, it's even worse than that: "exposure to intense heat caused the radar mast and sections of the upper deck structure to collapse into the hull" and the fire caused "severe deformation of the hull". A ship without a radar is pretty much already useless. When the whole thing is gutted and the hull is also damaged, it's a total loss.

And the top news of the day:

Russia establishes alternate route to Crimea through Armiansk, exactly as I predicted. And if an average joe like me figured it out, you better believe that the Ukrainians knew exactly what the Russians were going to do.

So how did the Ukrainians respond?

Ukrainian forces hit Russian convoy of about 50 fuel and ammunition lorries near Armiansk in Crimea

Ukraine strikes several bridges in northern Crimea, basically cutting it off from mainland resupply

Several bridges along the North Crimean Canal, which connects Crimea with other occupied territories on mainland Ukraine, were also hit in the attack.

Volodymyr Saldo, the Russian-installed head of occupied Kherson Oblast, said the strikes hit bridges near the settlements of Preobrazhenka and Myrne, a road bridge on the Perekop–Armiansk route, and a bridge near the village of Stavky.

Yep, that'll do it. With the strike at the Armiansk bridge, very little traffic coming to Crimea from the north can get through - there is a pontoon bridge next to the damaged Chonhar bridge and the very narrow road along the Arabat spit to the east, and potentially, also ferries, but even if all that stays intact - which it won't - that's a major bottleneck at best. This logistics crisis is turning into a disaster for Russia.

Sevastopol suspends fuel distribution

The governor of Sevastopol ‌in Russian-held Crimea said on Wednesday that plans for distributing rationed petrol had been delayed because trucks had been unable to bring the fuel into the city, following recent Ukraine strikes on supply routes.

Mikhail Razvozhayev's announcement that petrol rationing coupons temporarily could not be honoured coincided with remarks by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy that Kyiv's ​long-running campaign targeting energy assets in Russia and the lands it annexed had proved its worth.

"I am addressing everyone: there is no point in ​lining up at... the gas stations tomorrow,"

Previously, Russia had been able to ration fuel with special "coupons" but because fuel shipments aren't forthcoming, there's no fuel at all. They're not low on fuel. They're out of fuel. Any Russians in the area who need fuel better learn how to siphon because that's the only way they're getting it. And Russian military units in the area, which have already bitterly complained about the lack of fuel, are now completely screwed. Bullets don't fly without supply - nor do cars start, factories work, or soldiers advance. If this gets bad enough, the Russian military will have no choice but to leave. Civilians are already packing their bags - and it is fortunate for them that Ukraine did not destroy the Kerch bridge - the obvious route back to Russia. Afterwards, who knows what may happen?

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Telegram: "Russian Z-blogger Romanov says Ukraine controls the skies along the Kramatorsk front, with Vampire drones, also called Baba Yaga, operating even during daylight. He says Russian infantry units still face a critical shortage of drones, lack coordination, and cannot ram or freely use kamikaze drones because they rely on them to deliver food."

The Ukrainians fly their drones with impunity (what air defense doing?) and Russian units can't coordinate their actions (nothing new) and are so lacking in both drones and food that drones are used primarily to deliver food (the Ukrainians use ground drones for that). None of that bodes well for the Russians and speaks of a poorly organized and supplied operation.

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Ukraine destroys Black Sea Fleet Remnants recon ship Ivan Khurs

It was docked at Sevastopol during the Ukrainian strike there and was also struck. While it hasn't sunk afaik, it has suffered extensive damage to critical components and some equipment is now noticeably missing.

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There is a fake ai-generated image making the rounds on social media (it's on youtube too, which I won't be linking because they don't deserve the views) and I'm posting it just so you guys know what to look out for:



Red flag #1: photo is posted without any date or attribution
Red flag #2: no sources cited (trust me bro syndrome)
Red flag #3: photo itself is too "clean" - both the fires and vehicles are nearly identical, even the lighting of each vehicle is exactly the same which is really weird considering that there are light sources all over the place
Red flag #4: got any more pixels? zoom in and it's like Red Alert 1 graphics (ignore the Red Alert 1 plotline)
Red flag #5: what in name of Iron Man is going on with the "drone's" UI? There's just a weird green rangefinder-like thing at the top. When Ukrainians share their handiwork, they put their unit logo all over the footage and set it to the most insane 2000s slavic techno I've ever heard in my life. It's amazing.

Basically, if you see something that looks too good to be true, too clean, too generic, and no Ukrainian official or unit claims it, it's a fake.

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Ukraine institutes military reforms



Currently, 45 Ukrainian Hryvnia = 1 US dollar. So 300k UAH per month = $6,691.45 per month. Like everywhere else, money can be a powerful motivator.

And there is an important distinction between Ukraine and Russia in offering high payment for military service - Russia often times avoids paying its soldiers, its soldiers are often robbed by the commanders or others in the unit, and Russian soldiers have a much higher chance of dying.

Equally importantly, the Ukrainian government is working to rotate out soldiers, which has been a huge problem throughout the war.

Sometimes, to gauge how the war is going, I often ask myself if a random person from a random country without any political opinions and a very mercenary attitude would prefer to join the Ukrainian military or the Russian military, given their offerings and some knowledge about the conditions on the ground (standard-issue equipment, availability of food/water, likelihood of hazing, likelihood of death, etc). In early 2022, I would tentatively say that Russia had the edge. But during and after Bakhmut, I would say that Ukraine is the more attractive option. With this latest reform, I would say that Ukraine is the hands-down winner. Yes, Russia offers more money, but you can't spend it if you're dead. And the offer of Russian citizenship is less and less attractive with ongoing kabooms, fuel shortages, internet shutdowns, economic problems, and eventually, political instability. Ukraine has kabooms and some economic problems as well, but the situation there is much less dire and the foreseeable future is much better.

In time, Ukraine is likely to become an EU member, and that's a coveted thing. I read an article recently about an African who joined up with Ukraine because his brother was already serving with a unit there and because he wants Ukrainian citizenship and thus EU citizenship. That makes a lot of sense. I talk a lot about democracy VS soviet-style authoritarianism and good VS evil, but I have to remind myself that people are usually motivated by more tangible concerns also.

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Why it's so much fun to be on Telegram: Russian Military Personnel Transmitted Classified Data Through Public Telegram Group

Basically, this is like posting top-secret stuff on a blog post or Signal voice chat lol.

It was Russia's 143rd Rifle Division with the big brains, potentially harming the 5th Guards Combined Arms Army by disclosing their orders publically.

The stuff that was discovered:

Separate lists of Russian servicemen, tables of video surveillance systems, requests for the issuance of ammunition, spreadsheets containing usernames, passwords, and even two-factor authentication (2FA) keys used by unit commanders to access drone livestreams.

Oh the damage Ukrainian Intelligence can do with usernames/passwords and access to enemy drone footage in real time.... Potentially, you know where they are and what they're doing at all times. Extremely valuable information.

Journalists also found documents in the chat containing code designations for rivers, as well as directives on operational camouflage, intelligence activities, and information warfare.

That might be helpful, too

In August 2025, the 5th Guards said that that assault groups were "suffering losses due to inadequate supplies and low effectiveness of robotic systems". So low on ammo and drones were working poorly. Later on, they wanted more Starlink terminals (bad news there, lol)

In December 2025, they had the idea of creating decoys simulating vehicle movements and troop presence and to take recordings of the decoys and try to pass it off to the Ukrainians as the real deal.

In late April of this year, they discovered that unknown people had accessed their public chat and as of May 4th, they stopped posting there. Still, they gave Ukrainian Intelligence about a year's worth of information, some of which was probably quite useful. Kudos.

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Moscow, St. Petersburg face gas shortages after strikes on refineries

Ukrainian drones attacked the large TANECO oil refinery owned by Tatneft in Tatarstan, as well as the TAIF-NK facility in Nizhnekamsk.

Limits of up to 20 liters for AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline and up to 40 liters of diesel fuel per customer are in effect at Tatneft gas stations in Moscow and St. Petersburg.

20 liters is about 5 gallons, just fyi.

Apparently, the Russians are panic-buying and hoarding gasoline even in areas far from the logistics lockdown like the southern front in Ukraine. Why? Don't they know that the Russian government has everything in hand?

While there is an obvious shortage, people rushing to fuel up are aggravating the problem, said Evgeniy, a resident from the city of Simferopol in southern Crimea who works in transport security and also did not want his last name shared.

“If people did not try to make an extra buck by reselling gas, it wouldn’t be as bad,” said Evgeniy, 45.

Hard to imagine that citizens would engaging in such a scummy activity as hoarding and reselling in a kleptocracy. *tongue firmly in cheek*

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The duality of orc: Russian reactions to logistics failures



Genius #1, who is a current member of Russia's Duma and not some drug-addled rando like I initially thought, suggests evaporating gasoline into a literal gas, use "special fans" to blow it over to Crimea, where it'll rain down exclusively into gas tanks somehow and not the groundwater, which would normally trigger an environmental disaster. I'm pretty sure this guy fell asleep in physics class and also has an extremely inaccurate nostalgia for the "wonders" of soviet-era technology.

Bread lines, gasoline lines, that's the soviet way, isn't it? So there's nothing to complain about. You wanted the Soviet Union back. Well, wish granted. Enjoy.

Btw, in 2014 this guy was the commander of pro-Russian "separatist" forces (in reality, Russians) who ordered the shelling of an Orthodox Church, which murdered civilians. He's a war criminal and he should be brought to justice. After this war, he should be handed over to the Ukrainians so that he may be properly "thanked" for his efforts.



Genius #2 has a good point about Ukraine being ravaged by nazis during WWII and there is indeed a similar invasion going on today, possibly headed towards a similar end result.

"All bridges except the Krymsky Bridge have been destroyed" Thanks for the tip. I'd forward it to Ukrainian Intelligence, but I'm pretty sure they were the first to know.

"We are forced into a blockade, with the powers that be remaining deathly silent" I don't understand this logic. They want the world to ignore shelled Ukrainian cities, murder/torture of Ukrainian POWs, abduction of Ukrainian children, but they want the world to stand to attention when their military logistics are disrupted. It's like some weak bully who punches a kid and then cries to the police when he gets fussed out.



Speaking on behalf of the powers that be, the powers that be are LOVING the Russian war machine slowly grind to a halt. The powers that be love that Russia is losing the war it started and wasting a huge amount of equipment and troops in the process while also destroying its own economy. The powers that be love to see a bully get his teeth smashed in and be less of a threat for others in the future. The powers that be want this evil empire to collapse for good this time.

"it's unbearably painful and shameful" Good.

"Lord, save and preserve Sevastopol and Crimea!!!" There's always been a bit of an inconsistency in Russia about whether to embrace or shun religion, though it seems that a weird sort of quasi-theocracy has won out. Enjoy. Those sorts of beliefs seem to make nearly every country that practices them very happy /sarcasm

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Ukraine strikes Russian refinery in Yaroslavl region, causing oil rain. So, another economic and environmental disaster for Russia.

Russia maintains that its logistics are not "blockaded" because none of these routes are physically surrounded by Ukrainian forces. While they're not *technically* surrounded, Ukrainian drones are patrolling the roads to such an extent that safe delivery of fuel is extremely difficult to accomplish. Whatever Russia likes to call it, when stuff can't get from point A to point B for any reason, that's a logistical crisis.

There's even footage of a Russian soldier in Rostov region being refused fuel because it's an unapproved portable canister and therefore against the rules. He tries to cajole her by saying it's for the SMO, but against rules is against rules. Things aren't exactly going great for the Russian military when they can't even get fuel in Russia sometimes. (64 million ruble question: why doesn't the military just refuel at their own facilities?)