Atheist Forum

Ukraine Hits Four Crimean Gas Facilities

Ukraine strikes a Russian radar and air defense battery in Crimea (located along the north coast of the far eastern portion of Crimea, not far from the Kerch bridge)

Ukraine attacks Kerch and Kavkaz Ports, setting oil tanks on fire

Three ferries used to transport heavy trucks between Port Kavkaz and Kerch have been knocked out

Heavy trucks aren't allowed to use the Kerch bridge, so ferries are the only remaining viable option.

Crimea no longer sells gasoline to civilians, only military

Fuel will be supplied only to state services, he added.

Russians in Crimea will no doubt be delighted that they no longer have to deal with rationing or the uncertainty of fuel availability. Long queues will be a thing of the past.

It appears that my prediction that Russians there had better get in the habit of siphoning fuel is coming true and earlier than I thought. And in the near future, only Russian military vehicles will have fuel, so they better be on the lookout.

I have seen videos of Russians either stealing gasoline or being the victims of it. One guy even showed that his whole fuel tank had been removed. That takes some know-how but also a lot of desperation. Without the ability to pay for gasoline, there's going to be a lot more desperate people in Crimea.

It doesn't take a genius to predict that most Russian civilians will opt to leave shortly. Things weren't great before, and they're getting a lot worse. Fortunately for them, the Crimea bridge is still open, so all they have to do to leave is hit the road with whatever fuel they have left or stay and get a front-row seat to a very nasty situation.

A Russian lady complains about being kinda down in the dumps and she says she doesn't really know what's causing it. Meanwhile, air defense is firing and explosions are going off in the distance. (She knows what's up, she's criticizing the regime in a very indirect way)

The part about FighterBomber ("tanks forward" military genius) is a hilarious bit of trolling. Basically, he announced that a fuel shipment has arrived and the Ukrainians bombed it. Several Ukrainian military units publically thanked FighterBomber - helpfully including his full name and place of birth - implicating him as some sort of covert pro-Ukrainian spy. Some Russians were understandably upset with FighterBomber about it, but the reality is that the Ukrainians have eyes of their own and knew about the fuel shipment already and just fingered FighterBomber as a bit of trolling - sowing division within the Russian ranks. Maybe he gets a knock on his door from the FSB. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

Or if you're Russian air defense, you just straight up miss 100% of the shots regardless. Jeez, the Ukrainian drones are doing some damage! Crimea is really and truly under siege now and things are getting very rough for civilians. As predicted, they're starting to leave via the Kerch bridge - the Russians reported a large line exiting the bridge, hampered because vehicles must be searched for explosives. I hope they shut off the engine as needed during the wait, wouldn't want to run out of gas there.

Once that civilian traffic clears...anything might happen. Maybe even some sort of beach party.

We so love our dictators, earthly or celestial.

Russian logistics in Crimea continues to collapse

Not stonks: Russian gasoline production down 25% compared to this time last year

At least 15 Russian regions under fuel restrictions

To combat shortages, Russia imports gasoline from China

Russia considers using regular gasoline as a substitute for aviation fuel (what could go wrong?)

Ukraine strikes Dubna space communications center in Moscow region


Three Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles hit the Russian semiconductor plant in Voronezh

Ukrainian Forces Strike Kerch CHP Plant in Occupied Crimea; Fuel Tanks Ablaze

A thermal plant was set on fire. The almost-island was already experiencing rolling blackouts before this strike.

Satellite data shows a thick plume of black smoke stretching about 47 kilometers.

One Russian cope/rationalization for the sorts of massive fires is that the Ukrainian drones carry a bunch of fuel and that's what's burning when they get shot down (obviously, only debris harms Russian facilities). They must carry a super-amazing sort of fuel if one tiny drone can create a plume of smoke 47km long!

Ukraine said they were going after logistics/infrastructure and man are they ever! Smart move because Russian body count is almost meaningless to Pootin and his oligarchs.

Russia doesn't have nearly enough AA to protect everywhere, so what do you prioritize? What do you heavily protect and what do you leave sparsely defended? There's the frontline, Crimea, Moscow, St Petersburg, other cities, refineries, war factories, etc. Personally, I'd prioritize the frontline and the other things that are directly vital to the war effort, like war factories and logistics. Clearly, I'm not a military super-genius like Putin, because in true dictator fashion, he chose to protect himself most of all.

Putin decided to prioritize Moscow, Valdai (Putin's mansion is there), and the Kerch bridge (underscoring how important that structure is to Putin maintaining his reign)

If you're the Ukrainians, this is fantastic news. Whole regions of Russia are sparsely protected and it stands to reason that the frontline will be receiving far fewer AA. The Ukrainians can easily use this to their advantage by stepping up attacks on vulnerable areas and ignoring well-defended areas. And you can hit more targets with less drones because less of them will be shot down.

The Ukrainians probably wouldn't even hit the Kerch bridge right now because there's a bunch of civilians using it right now - a long queue stretching 10 kilometers. The Ukrainians are probably going to wait for civilians to finish leaving Crimea and traffic to die down before hitting the bridge.

Bottom line - expect far more booms than normal and at places other than Moscow, Valdai, and the Kerch bridge. Expect those to be left alone...for now.

Shoigu! Gerasimov! Thunder run when?