Atheist Forum

Ukraine may already be winning World War III for an oblivious West

Biden’s mantra was that Ukraine is an isolated conflict, and that it was only a question of defending Kyiv for as long as it takes. There was no talk then of defending U.S. allies and global interests from Putin and Xi’s aim to create and wield a new world order. Nor did Hamas’s heinous terrorist attacks and atrocities against Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, 2023 make it clear to Team Biden that the risk to global security had expanded far beyond the front lines in Ukraine.

It seemed Putin and Xi’s visions of a new multi-polar order were openly clashing with traditional Western-style liberal democracy that had largely ensured global peace since the end of World War II in 1945. And the bad guys were winning.

Only one country fully understood what was at stake on a global basis: That was Ukraine, of course.

Good article. The key thing to remember is that this was/is a joint operation between Russia, Iran, and North Korea (and to some extent, China) to upend the "rules-based" international order backed by a hegemonic West. Instead, we'd be back to "spheres of influence" with naturally, a larger and larger portion of Eastern Europe falling to either direct or puppet control by Moscow. (a move that Putin informed Xi about at the Olympics before it happened) Same in southeast Asia with China. Same in the Middle East with Iran.

First, it'd only be small wars, but these things tend to snowball. It really could've become a catastrophic war if left unchecked. But it was checked due to a huge amount of military aid to Ukraine, significant sanctions on Russia, and absolutely phenomenal work by the Ukrainians themselves. They worked very hard to prevent a very dark future for Europe.

Russia's central bank now expects zero growth, worsening inflation

"Companies expect demand to slow, as follows from the real-time data. Taking into account the temporary reduction in capacity in the economy, we have lowered our GDP growth forecast," the head of the Bank of Russia commented.

The Central Bank expects that "fuel production capacity will gradually be restored by the end of the year"

They don't know that any of this is temporary. They hope, but they don't know. If anything, Ukraine is intensifying its mid and long-range strike campaign.

Before, it was a refinery a week. Then it was a refinery and a couple of ships. Now, it's a refinery every other day plus a bunch of ships and several Wildberries. As of now, the only rational reason one might expect that to slow is from lack of suitable targets, everything else is just wishful thinking.

And as usual, the Central Bank is giving only a partially accurate picture, breaking bad news to Russians in a way that's still wrapped in fantasy. The reality of the situation is almost certainly much worse. Importing fuel instead of selling it isn't going to be nice to the Russian economy, nor is losing tankers or people not working because they're sitting around waiting for fuel. Nor is warehouses going boom with lots of people eager to withdraw whatever inventory they have left and either never using another warehouse again or doing business overseas instead. There's also a looming mass conscription - quickly turning workers into sunflowers while there's a shortage of workers. Gee, I wonder why. Zero growth is an overly rosy estimate - Russia's economy is likely to shrink bigtime.

Mybe this why Zelenskyy warns of 'massive' Russian attack within 48 hours. Putin is getting desperate.

Iran is upset about this and calls on the international community to condemn these attacks. The same regime that massacred thousands of its own people who were protesting.

Putin visited the "fleet" and something's missing... Also, the signs of gas prices in area were reportedly changed to pre-war values (without changing the amount charged, assuming they have any) so that Putin isn't embarrassed and also so that any photographs will reflect the regime-approved alternative facts.

And he took the opportunity to claim that Ukraine was a fake country with very questionable, often circular logic. Well, he's the expert about faking stuff. Faking elections, faking referendums, faking victories, faking diplomacy, faking war justifications. And when he dies, he'll be lying still.

Russia demands compensation from Europe for the war it started in Ukraine

Alexander Voloshin, a member of Russia’s Federation Council representing the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, agreed that Moscow should demand compensation from the West.

He argued that Ukraine cannot compensate for damage to Donbas, occupied parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, or Russian border areas – estimated at 1 trillion rubles (about $13 billion) by Russia’s Investigative Committee head Alexander Bastrykin.

1) Not a legally-recognized polity
2) The damages would be zero if Russian soldiers had stayed on their side of the border.
3) Whatever damages Ukraine inflicted on Russia was in self-defense. Try to invade someone else's home, you might get shot. All the more reason to stay away.
4) Putin made the decision, Putin is responsible for everything. So ask Putin for compensation.

I like this podcaster....

He's absolutely right about the bread lines. People, especially Russians, like to mythologize the Soviet era as a time of power and security. With the Ukrainians and Poles and Romanians and Estonians and others pitching in, it's fair to say that Moscow was a lot wealthier and more powerful than it is now. But that system had a price and the price was that very often, there wasn't enough of [insert noun] to go around. Shockingly, a centrally-managed economy didn't work out so well.

I do like how Russians are starting to vent their frustrations on Putin, either directly or indirectly calling him out as the architect for their problems, which he absolutely is.

Though calling for a dictatorial regime to institute free and fair elections is a risible idea. There are various trajectories most nations have taken to democracy, and the vast majority of them involve some form of violent revolution (good news for the Russians there, they have quite a track record of violent revolution themselves). And also, Russians - and others throughout the world - have to rid themselves of the idea of needing a strongman. Because if you have that idea and you vote, you just get another Putin. As the saying goes, dumb men create dictators, dictators create hard times, men die during hard times. Something like that.

Ukraine hit another Wildberries and the smoke plume resembles a volcano eruption

Must be a day that ends in a y. Actually, today is a buy-one-get-one-free sale at Wildberries because not only is the Sarapul one burning to the ground, but the Penza one was also hit hard.

Iirc, Ukraine has officially wiped out over half the Wildberries (by square footage). This is one of Russia's largest retailers getting absolutely torn up this quarter. There's no way they're not going bankrupt after this. They're already not allowing sellers to withdraw either inventory or funds because they'd collapse the instant they did. With additional warehouses going aflame, the thumbscrews tighten.

Ukraine also struck the Lukoil-Perm oil refinery, one of Russia's largest refineries.

Preliminary information indicated that a primary oil-processing unit, one of the refinery's key installations, was burning.

That's good. Direct hit. From what I've read, if the drones hit the other stuff, that can be repaired quickly. When it hits the primary processing unit, it's kaput for a very long time. It's like shooting at a car and hitting a bumper versus shooting it and hitting the engine block. One is a lot easier and less costly to replace than the other.